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Last Week’s Stories

Copper and…

Erica Beattie

Earlier this week, energy analyst Daniel Yergin told Financial Post that copper is the “basic metal of electrification”. The International Energy Agency has more information on minerals and clean energy, as well as some great visuals proving Yergin’s point.

Minerals used in clean energy production

Minerals used in EVs VS conventional cars

Unfortunately, Yergin also predicted a supply-demand gap in this critical mineral that could potentially impede global plans to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, along with other clean energy goals. Yergin and his team of analysts compiled a 122-page report that goes into the details of the copper market dynamics, geopolitics, and economic ramifications for copper in our society. Newer clean energy technologies, such as solar panels, wind turbines, EVs along with their batteries and charging stations, require a substantial amount of copper. The report estimates that copper supply will have to double by 2035 in order to meet this demand. This means going from the current 25 million metric tonnes per year to 50 million metric tonnes in the next 13 years. The dilemma will be how can we find a way to achieve this great increase in the supply of copper in such a short amount of time in order to satisfy the new demand? Yergin’s report elaborates on this and outlines two possible scenarios he and his team have come up with.

more copper

Debosree Mukherjee

A new S&P Global study shows that as the world is moving away from fossil fuels and towards an all-electric future, a copper supply shortage may hamper the 2050 net-zero emissions target. According to the study, the energy transition will be much more dependent on copper than the current energy system.

  • An EV needs 2.5 times more copper than an internal combustion engine vehicle
  • Solar and wind power needs two and five times more copper per MW of installed capacity than power generated using gas or coal
  • Copper-made cables, transistors, and inverters are crucial in the infrastructure that transports renewable energy

Forecasts show that the demand for copper will almost double to 50 million metric tons by 2035. The surge of demand will be caused by fast and large-scale developments of EV, charging infrastructure, solar and wind power, and batteries. The demand is predicted to be over 53 million metric tons in 2050. That’s more than all the copper consumed in the world between 1900 and 2021!

This will cause serious shortfalls since building new copper mines or expanding existing ones will take more time than available to increase supply and meet the demand surge. According to an IEA estimate, a new mine takes 16 years to be developed. Recycling and increasing capacity utilization of an existing mine are the main sources of additional supply.

According to the Rocky Road Scenario, at the current recycling and capacity utilization rate, annual supply shortfalls will be almost 10 million metric tons in 2035.

In the High Ambition Scenario, all-time high recycling levels and aggressive growth in mine capacity utilization will still see the deficit will be 1.6 million metric tons in 2035, higher than any previous shortage.

US inflation at 40-year high!

Debosree Mukherjee

In June, US inflation increased to 9.1%, the highest since November 1981! This was above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. Inflation was driven by high oil and gas prices, as the data show that energy contributed to almost half of the all-items increase in the June consumer price index (CPI).

This should not be surprising since energy prices increased 41.6% over the past year. Gasoline rose 11.2% on a month-over-month basis, and 59.9% over the last 12 months. It was the largest 12 month increase in this index since March 1980. Natural gas rose 8.2% in June which was the largest monthly increase since October 2005. Electricity, bucking the trend a bit, rose 1.7%.

Canada is also dealing with high inflation at 7.7% with fears of a four-decade high 8% inflation soon. To curb inflation, Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5% from 1.5% and said more hikes would be needed. This is the highest increase since 1998.

Irving invests in hydrogen

Keshinee Moonian

Irving Oil is expanding hydrogen capacity at its refinery in New Brunswick in a bid to lower carbon emissions and offer clean energy to customers.

Irving Oil might be on its way to buying a five-megawatt hydrogen electrolyzer which will create two tonnes of hydrogen a day using electricity from the local grid.

Hydrogen is used to lower the sulphur content of petroleum products like diesel fuel, but producing hydrogen using natural gas creates carbon dioxide emissions. Instead, Irving Oil is using water and electricity to produce “clean hydrogen” through a process called electrolysis. According to Irving, the company is the first to invest in electrolyzer technology.

“New Brunswick Power’s electrical system includes 14 generating stations powered by hydro, coal, oil, nuclear and diesel,” according to The Canadian Press.

This investment also allows the company to store and make hydrogen available to the marketplace. Thanks to this technology, Irving will be able to “unlock pent up demand for hydrogen as an energy transition fuel for logistics organizations.”

Irving Oil invests in hydrogen to offer clean energy to customers by lowering emissions

Nuclear’s small footprint

Yousaff Habib

A recent study published in the Journal of Cleaner Production detailed research into the environmental impact of nuclear energy. The study uses total material requirement (TMR) which is a comprehensive life cycle assessment to measure the impact of nuclear power. The study found that mining, uranium processing and plant construction had the biggest share in the total environmental impact of nuclear power. Moreover, the study found that mining method played a large role on total resources expended, but a small role in greenhouse gas emissions. Ultimately, researchers calculated that the TMR coefficient of nuclear power generation is 20% that of coal, 23% that of oil, and 35% of natural gas. This implies that nuclear power has a TMR comparable to renewable energy such as solar.

Comparison of Nuclear TMR to other sources

Nuclear energy has long been touted as low carbon energy source, but this study lends further credence to its use, showcasing that it is a low resource energy source as well. Nuclear energy remains an important consideration in energy generation moving forward.

For in depth reading on the methods and data used please refer to the original study

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